The Pipe Review

Pipeline reviews for sales leaders

Your CRM prints one number. Your pipeline implies a range.

The Pipe Review runs your open deals through ten thousand Monte Carlo simulations. You get the range you will actually land in, your odds of hitting target, and the few deals that decide the quarter. Walk into the review knowing what to discuss.

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Built by Paolo Bruschi, Head of Sales. Over 12 months, my forecast error fell from 50% to 14%.

This quarter, 14 open deals

Your CRM says

215.650 €

You will land between

136.500 €—298.000 €

Odds of hitting 200.000 €
60%
Spread from 3 deals
83%
No account, no cardNothing leaves your browser unless you sign inFree for as long as you likeNo demo to book

Why weighted pipeline keeps missing

01

Too few deals to average

Weighted pipeline is an average. Those 14 deals land anywhere between 136.500 € and 298.000 €, four times in five. One figure cannot describe that.

02

Sizes that are not comparable

Ten small deals and one large one are not eleven deals. Here, 83% of the uncertainty comes from 3.

03

No way to state the risk

You can give your CEO a number. You cannot give them your confidence in it, or the bad case, or the probability of the bad case.

Which is how you end up committing a number to your board that you cannot defend, and finding out in week eleven.

Built by a head of sales, for the job he had

My own forecast error

50%14%

Over twelve months of my own reviews.

I ran this as a spreadsheet for a year before it was software. I was tired of walking into a board meeting with one number and no idea how wrong it was.

That drop was not because I got better at guessing. It was because I finally had a record of how I guessed, and it showed me where I was wrong.

That record is the paid half. Everything else I would have wanted for free, so it is.

Paolo Bruschi

Head of Sales

What you actually do with your sales pipeline

Four columns. Your deals, your odds, not the stage's odds. Type them in as you talk through them and the range moves as you go.

  1. 1Type in your open deals, one line each
  2. 2Put your own win % on each one
  3. 3Close the month out as it ends
OwnerDealValueWin %
AlexDunmore renewal86.500 €70%
JordanOakhurst new logo43.500 €50%
MorganMarlow expansion24.000 €30%
RileyMerrow pilot11.500 €20%

Running the pipeline review

A forecast says where you will land. A review decides what to do about it. That is a different question, and the one you answer in front of your team on Monday morning.

  1. 1Start from the few deals that drive the spread, not all forty
  2. 2Tick the ones your team will commit to and see what closing them is worth
  3. 3Hand them out, so each rep leaves with one or two names, not a spreadsheet

3 deals selected, closing them puts you at 420.000 €, 105% of your 400.000 € target

includes 100.000 € already won · if they close, odds of hitting target go from 26% to 100%

Sam 1 · 140.000 €Alex 1 · 120.000 €Jordan 1 · 60.000 €

Sample report

An example account · four reps · twelve months

Forecast accuracy over twelve months

340 deals resolved over the twelve months behind it. Every figure is computed by the same code your pipeline would run through.

A handful of deals decide the quarter

83% of this quarter's uncertainty comes from 3 deals. The rest barely move it.

That is your agenda: these 3, in this order. Odds all of them miss: 4%.

Where the uncertainty lives

  • Dunmore renewal + upsell86.500 € @ 50%
    49%
  • Fenwick expansion73.000 € @ 80%
    22%
  • Westhall consolidation43.500 € @ 60%
    12%

You run 25% hot

12 closed months, 340 resolved deals. Your forecasts came in 25% above what closed.

So read today's range lower than it prints. That one correction beats any new pipeline report.

4 consecutive months hot. That is a definition problem, not bad luck, so revise what your percentages mean.

Forecast against actual

  • October
    -6%
  • November
    -8%
  • December
    -36%
  • January
    -15%
  • February
    -1%
  • March
    -7%
  • April
    -50%
  • May
    +12%
  • June
    -63%
  • July
    -25%
  • August
    -56%
  • September
    -43%

← closed less than forecastclosed more than forecast →

Worst month: June, forecast 305.650 €, closed 113.000 €.

What happens to deals that reach 50%, and 90%

85 deals reached "out for signature" over the year, and 76% of them closed. 15 were lost outright, 372.000 € that got as far as 90% and did not land.

Halfway up, 49% of the 227 deals that reached 50% closed. That is whether the middle of your pipeline is real. Every leader feels this. None of them can evidence it.

Reached this rung or better, then closed

  • 90%
    76% of 85
  • 80%
    65% of 144
  • 70%
    63% of 166
  • 60%
    57% of 196
  • 50%
    49% of 227
  • 40%
    44% of 257
  • 30%
    39% of 290

The forecast is free. The hindsight is €29.

Everything you need for a pipeline review is free, permanently. Your track record is the paid half. It is only worth anything once you have months behind you, so build the history first.

Free · forever

€0

  • The range your pipeline implies, not one number
  • Odds of hitting your target
  • Which deals drive the spread
  • Close each month out, history kept
  • Your headline verdict, once you have one
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Pro · track record

€29/month

  • Month by month: forecast against actual
  • Per rep, who states higher than they close
  • By deal size, whether the big ones are the unreliable ones
  • What happens to deals reaching 50% and 90%
  • Margins of error, so no verdict is called on too little data

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Before you ask

Does this replace my CRM?

No, and it is not trying to. Your CRM is the record of what happened. This is the half hour before the pipeline review, where you decide what to believe about what has not happened yet. Most people keep both: the CRM for the record, this for the half hour.

What if I have a hundred open deals?

Then you need this less. Spread narrows as deal count rises, and at a hundred roughly even deals the range sits near ±10% and the weighted number is close enough. It earns its place when you have ten to thirty deals of very different sizes, where one or two decide the quarter.

How long before the track record tells me anything?

One closed month gives you a first reading, marked as an early read. It becomes a verdict at thirty resolved deals, which for most teams is three to four months. Per rep takes longer, as a rep needs about thirty of their own.

What happens to my data if I do not subscribe?

Nothing. The forecast is free permanently, your history keeps accumulating, and if you subscribe a year from now it reads all of it back. Cancel and you keep the forecast and the history. You lose the breakdown, not the data.

Do I have to put every deal in?

For the range, no. Anything you leave out is simply not counted. For the track record, yes: it compares what you forecast against what actually closed, so a pipeline missing half its deals will read as permanently cold.

Find out what your quarter actually looks like

No demo to book, no call, no seat minimum. Four minutes on your real numbers, and nothing leaves your browser until you sign in.

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